剛剛見到有人quote peter lynch:
好股票夠平就買入，不用擔心。我試過$12買入一隻股票，看著它跌到$2，再升到$30。
但是正正是peter lynch,叫人不要在股票急跌時入市：don't try to catch a falling knife.
看來，peter lynch最終參透了，但不少人還未能領悟。
但是，就在這個他引以為傲的實例，trend follower會做得更好。
以lynch的例子，他賺了$18，代價是全程鎖住$12。
想象一下trend follower: 下跌時應該能全數避開，假設他的操作不佳，忍不住嘗試入市，蝕了$2。
上升初期是會miss的，假設他非常遲鈍，升左一倍@$4才留意到入市。
他都有$30-$4-$2=$24袋落袋。
當中（不計下跌時的投入，因為會很快止蝕）只是付出了$4！
當然，個別例子不能得到結論，但是很多現實的情況都很類似。
可能大家還會有疑問，去賭場trend following買大細唔work？
這是因為兩個情況有一個很重要的分別： 賭場的大細是完全random的event,股市是人為的，會偏離normal distribution.
有人會問，如果trend following較effective，點解咁少人做？
這是因為人類不願意接受自己理解不了的東西。
只看price,不理其他，就能捕捉獲利機會，是難以理解的。
但是，事實力證，數百年來，大米，糖，salt，黃金，以至股票，順勢而行也是獲利。
因為人性，在哪裡，甚麼時代，都是不變的。
要鑽研trend following,首先要有「資質」： 一種能力，可以在不了解的情況下，先接受被證明為effective的東西。
幸好，小弟讀物理，已被長久訓練這樣東西。
舉例，「量子物理」說所有東西是「既粒子又是波」，令人費解，但是實驗證實了理論正確，而且量子物理能完滿解決很多物理難題，很effective,我就「照單全收with no arguments」
如果有哪位讀者，還能看到這裡的，不妨嘗試trend following, 以模擬倉開始，話不定你都會發現它的effectiveness.
i think the key difference is: investors (buy low) and speculator (follow trend).
回覆刪除when an investor say: don't try to catch a falling knife. it means he hope to buy stock at cheaper price,
but when a speculator say the same thing, he means he want to avoid lost.
yes, since you are an 'owner' you are looking at a different angle.
回覆刪除total respect from me here. i am just not devoted in the 'owner perspective'.
just i never able to understand how to apply physic law in speculating? it sounds a lot like the Quantum Fund which i am still not able how it works.
回覆刪除p.s. something wrong with the google account again.
回覆刪除you know the Times Magazine said there is a fund run by collecting keywords like worry, happy from the 2 billions twitter accounts in order to analyze the market mood?
Hi anyom:
回覆刪除1.) No, I am not apply physics law, just use physics law as an example to show that 'one can try to accept something, before understand how it works, if it proved itself it works deadly effective'.
Many things, from old chinese wisdom, physics law, to speculating, lies within the same central idea.
2.) then you may leave your name at the end of the message
3.) I heard of that, but I neither understand how it works nor able to find any investment performance associated with this approach, thus I can's determine if this approach is effective or not.
I suppose it is easier for scientists or engineers to grasp that concept. After all, numbers do not lie, no matter how absurd it may seem and scientists and engineers are trained to do that. I just watched "margin call" last nite. Most people in the firm (I suppose they imply Goldman) except the sales, are these "quants".
回覆刪除The difficulties in trend following is how to derive an effective in-out strategy and stick to it.
'The difficulties in trend following is how to derive an effective in-out strategy and stick to it.'
回覆刪除yes, that is the 'art part' of the whole thing.
effective in-out strategy: i am still finding, but seems price + volume does speaks itself, am putting william o neil + cup + jesse livermore together.
of course, as trend following legends do, they still fine tune their in-out system everyday.
It's like learning music, or anything: you can be a starter for learning, but even you become master you can still be learning.
the other part: how to stick with it: this require '資質'again. I am lucky enough to be a super straight-forward person with little emotion.
but anybody with the aid of excel table (which generate hard solid figures like your investment return) should be able to keep discipline.
also, for keeping disclipine, advices from legends are useful, especially this one:
when the market do not behave as you expect, take away half of your bets.
You need not take away the whole bet, so you won't feel 'lost the battle', feel 'being hurt' and struggle to retreat.
While you take away half of your bet means your risk is halved.
If market later behave as you expect, you can always put back the withdrawn 50%.
oh yes, i am the owner type :P
回覆刪除i just found out your style is very similar to my high-powered fund friend, except his action is much more frequent.
what is the "key indicators" for you to "guess" the trend? or i mean make assumption and what you expect?
About 'owner' perspective: I think I could be the most strange man in the world, which I never intend to 'own' or 'control' something.
回覆刪除What ever happens to me I just 'let it be', generally.
Anyways. for your friend, too frequent trade results too large the trading cost. Though I know your friends got a super low transaction fee edge.
For myself, mostly I use 'price + volume' and recognise highly suspected patterns.
The simplest one, which is happening now, is:
'When market prrice is exhibiting a downward trend, it will continue downwards, except when there is a big 'buying power' to turn the tide'.
Example of 'big buying power' is 2009 buffett and afterwards effect, 2011 early oct 'a few consecutive days of index rise with high volume'
nope, you ain't strange, a lot of people don't want to get involve into the business, just see whether it is a good opportunity to earn from a trend, just not anyone can be good at it.
回覆刪除yes i agree, that's his advantage.
make sense! what is your expectation the downwards will end and why? or no need to know at all?
yes, as you guess, no need to expect when to end.
回覆刪除Just 'let it be'
When the market rise again, it will:
-show signal if it rise big
-I may miss if rise is very small or temporary, but I don't mind at all, giving I can avoid the big loss all along