需要逃生的形態

以下兩款是需要逃生的危險形態
(反之,若果股價大跌,但未觸及逃生形態,可用減倉代替,甚至個別走勢強勁的股票,可以大膽「坐」至危險形態出現才賣出)

1.) 一日反轉:
根據livermore原裝正版定義的三個條件:
-本日高位比昨日高位高
-本日收市點比昨日收市點低
-本日成交量比昨日成交量多

「一日反轉」代表有人期望過高,但與此同時有人很悲觀,而且因為量大,不只散戶,連大戶也各持己見,是見頂訊號。

2.) 跌破「最小抵抗點」:
亦是完全跟隨livermore定義:
-每隻股票有其「股性」,在某時間內,在價量點後只會「慣性回調」一定的百分比,視個股而異,少至3%也有,最多為價量點的7%。
「慣性回調」的最深百分比就是「最小抵抗點」。
通常「最小抵抗點」附近會見強力支持。

若果跌穿「最小抵抗點」,走勢很可能轉壞。

2012年4月1日 星期日

「笨蛋」及 「瘋狂的交易法則」

今日講故事:
從前,有一位小朋友,他可謂愚蠢無比。

朋友們最喜歡向他展示一個1元及一個2元硬幣,讓他選一個據為己有。
這位小朋友總是選擇1元,眾人捧腹大笑後散去。

終於有一日,一位好朋友忍不住了,問他:你難道不知道2元較值錢?我實在不忍心看見你被嘲笑。
答:我怎會不知道?

如果我急於一次性的利潤而失去巨大的潛在利潤,為甚麼我不提取較少利潤,保留以後繼續獲利的機會?
如果嘲笑能夠換來可觀利潤,「愚蠢」及「嘲笑」又算得上甚麼?

究竟哪位是智者?哪位是真正的笨蛋?

另一個故事:
有兩位「瘋子」,他們創立了「瘋狂的交易法則」:
-對於「心頭好」大減價,他們沒有興趣買入。
-錯過了機會,價格開始上漲,他們的興趣增加,但還未買入
-直到價格創新高,他們才用「有史以來最貴的價錢」買入

-如果買入後價格不尋常地下跌,他們會「急急腳賣出」,「保證」自己錄得虧損

要用最「愚蠢」的價格買入,還要偶然「保證錄得虧損」,你說他們是否瘋子?

這兩位「瘋子」,一位是Darvas,另一位是Livermore,前者在數十年前白手賺US$2,000,000,後者賺得更多,賺了普通人發夢都不敢想象的金額。

究竟誰是笨蛋?智者?
誰是瘋子?天才?

我分不清了,哈哈!

P.S. 故事在愚人節發佈,但是故事本身不是笑話,內容是意義重大的。

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